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Daily Forex Analysis

EUR/JPY
EUR/GBP
USD/JPY
EUR/USD

Forex EUR/JPY Daily Outlook

With 4 hours MACD crossed below signal line, GBP/JPY's recovery from 143.04 might have completed. Break of 143.82 minor support will flip intraday bias back to the downside. Further break of 143.04 will bring fall resumption to retest 139.26 low eventually. On the upside, above 145.26 will bring another round of recovery. But still, we'd hold on to the bearish view as long as 147.25 resistance holds. That is, choppy rise from 139.26, as well as the three wave consolidation pattern from 139.69, has completed at 150.68 already.

04/Feb/2010

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Forex EUR/GBP Daily Outlook

Intraday bias in EUR/GBP remains neutral for the moment. While another recovery cannot be ruled out, we'd continue to expect upside to be limited by 0.8792 resistance and bring fall resumption. Below 0.8660 minor support will flip intraday bias back to the downside and break of 0.8601 low will bring fall resumption to 100% projection of 0.9410 to 0.8833 from 0.9153 at 0.8576 next. Nevertheless, break of 0.8792 resistance will be the first signal that recent decline from 0.9410 has completed and stronger rally should be seen to 0.8833/9153 resistance zone next.

04/Feb/2010

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Forex USD/JPY Weekly Outlook

USD/JPY's choppy recovery from 89.13 might still continue further but after all, fall from 93.74 is still expected to continue as long as 91.86 resistance holds. Below 90.07 minor support will flip intraday bias back to the downside. Break of 89.13 will confirm fall resumption to 87.36 support next. As discussed before, break of 87.36 will also confirm the bearish case that whole rise from 84.10 has completed with three waves up to 93.74 already and that medium term down trend is resuming for another low below 84.81. However break of 91.86 will invalidate the bearish view and suggest that rise from 84.81 is still in progress for another high above 93.74.

04/Feb/2010

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Forex - EUR/USD Daily Outlook

EUR/USD's break of 1.3852 suggests that recovery has completed at 1.4025 and recent decline has resumed. Intraday bias is flipped back to the downside and further fall should be seen to key cluster support at 1.3737 next. On the upside, above 1.4025 will bring more consolidation, probably another rise for 1.4193 resistance But after all, we'd expect upside to be limited by 1.4217/4578 resistance zone and bring resumption of the whole fall from 1.5143.

04/Feb/2010

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Analysts said sentiment towards the single currency remained broadly negative, not helped by Greek unions pledging to fight austerity measures with another strike this week, prompting an increase in the cost of insuring Greece's sovereign debt.

Investors were disappointed the weekend Group of Seven meeting did not lead to concrete action to tackle the sovereign debt problems of countries such as Greece, Portugal and Spain.

European ministers told their counterparts at the meeting they would ensure Greece sticks to its budget-cutting plan, but analysts said more was needed to restore confidence the problems would not upset the global economic recovery.

"As long as EMU fears still loom and there is no strong signal from EU authorities that they will do something to tackle the situation in Greece, Spain and Portugal then euro downside potential will remain," said Roberto Mialich, currency strategist at Unicredit in Milan.

U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission data showed investors increased their bets on further dollar gains in the latest week. Dollar net long positions were at their highest in 11 months while euro short positions jumped close to highs seen after Lehman Brothers collapsed in late 2008.

Mounting worries that Portugal will be the next country in the euro zone to come under pressure after Greece lifted the greenback against the euro. Spain fiscal deficit also was a concern.

The euro slipped below the key 1.3900 level to a session low of $1.3891 EUR=, and the cost of insuring Portuguese government bonds against default rose a record 196 basis points, according to CMA DataVision.

MSCI's all-country world index .MIWDO0000PUS fell 0.4 percent.

U.S. stocks mostly fell after Pfizer Inc (PFE.N) led a broad decline in health-related sectors after the world's biggest drugmaker reported quarterly earnings that missed estimates and forecast profits below expectations.